Well, we are just under 2 weeks away from our next online session.
The aim as always is to help people understand the new Procurement Act 2023, and the opportunities for their organisation.
Always enjoy the mix of businesses attending and it leads to really interesting discussions.
Full details are here.
Hope to see you there.
The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has been going on longer than expected. (well, longer than I expected - but I didn't expect the situation to arise, so what do I know?)
The New Normal which looks at the petrochemicals industries is warning that things COULD get a lot, lot worse before they get better.
We are just at the point where buffer stocks are running down. But even it everything opened up tomorrow it may till take 6 months or more to get back to normal.
That means at least 6 months of higher prices for fuel and chemicals (and hence everything), shortages and disruptions.
Good procurement professionals have been looking at their options a matter of course, but just at the moment the shift from Lean supply chains to Resilient supply chains seems essential. IF you can, of course.
Which is why we get a package for our trip to Malta, so that if flights were cancelled because of a lack of aviation fuel our holiday company was responsible for our accommodation (we saw what happened when the volcano in Iceland stopped flights over Europe and we had to stay in Egypt for an extra week - those who booked independently had to fend for themselves). Yes there is insurance, but who wants to have to go through that process when they are on holiday?
And there is much greater interest in alternatives to fossil fuels - but that transition will take time and money. This shock might just be the trigger though.
Meanwhile, we are seeing decreases in students from the Gulf coming to the UK for procurement training courses... just to show that the immediate and obvious impacts are not the only ones.
So, one last Malta photo (obvs we got there and back with no problems). (yes they have Red phone boxes, and post boxes).
The next course is to be held on Wednesday 22nd April online and is filling up nicely.
So, if you want to attend please book promptly. Details here.
But there will be more later this year.
The course is suitable for both buyers and suppliers.
Last time I whittered on about current crises.
And (pessimistically) said that there are more to come.
Ok, so what do I think they are?
First, obviously, is climate change. It is time to stop pretending it is not happening. We can moderate the impact, and work to slow the change. The time is right because renewable energy is also energy less dependent on fossil fuels, and so strategically acts to limit the impact of oil/gas disruption.
Secondly, AI. Never mind how well it works - it will get better. But what will happen to our economy? What will happen to your business? If you have an AI buying from an AI sales bot, then you have a lower headcount. But then who are the people buying your products and services if we massively reduce our collective workforces? I don't know, but you should.
Thirdly, Demographics. People still seem to think that the world is going to explode in population over the next few years. The reality of a shrinking EU population, a shrinking Korea, a shrinking Chine, a shrinking Japan just is not in people's minds. Yes the global population is projected to increase by 20/25% from 8 billion to 10 billion.... but there are other scenarios that say actually it go no higher than 8.5 or 9 billion. Malthus was wrong (thankfully) but these are ideas are not really in the public arena.
fourth, the decline of democracy - authoritarianism and corruption go hand in hand. And both are on the rise across the globe. Reversing those trends will be difficult, but without it we are all in a heap of trouble.
Fifth, people still do not realise how important Procurement is, and how important it is to invest in my training courses.
Come on, I can't be all serious!
I am sure that there are lots of things I've missed. Always interested to hear.
There are definitely going to be people who say that the conflict in the Middle East has been going on for longer than 3 weeks.
Some will say since 9/11.
Some will say since 1953 when the elected Iranian government was overthrown.
Some will say since 1919 and the "Peace to end Peace" and Sykes-Picot.
Some will say since Homeric times and the war against Troy... (Just listened to the Penelopiad by Margaret Atwood - very good).
And of course this by no means the only conflict in the world today - some "hot" wars and some less so.
So my question, is "why do we keep thinking that things will return to normal after this crisis"?
One thing we can see is that there is usually another, different crisis within a decade. (and of course some crises are ones that just re-ignited).
So from a procurement point of view, we should not just assume that everything will be all right in the end. Maybe it will. But then there will be something else.
So how do we prepare and plan for this.
Lean supply chains and Just In Time have huge benefits, but are easily disrupted by global incidents. Resilient or Agile supply chains are typically more expensive, but more robust.
I think the key thing is not to abandon your strategic approach (whichever it is) but to have in place contingency plans and options for when the next thing(s) come over the horizon.
And it will.
(but to be more optimistic, and we shall survive it, pretty much no matter what it is).
Iran
It is disturbing to see places you know well in the news
because of war – in this case Dubai (in particular the airport and Palm).
It helps to bring home that these things are happening to
real people not in video game or AI generated content.
I hope this ends soon, and that there are no more casualties.
Not by any means the most important thing, but I would like
to think about what it means for Procurement. These days I frequently discuss with my
delegates the acronym VUCA – Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous. Unlike other tools this is just a descriptor
rather than a diagnosis, but I think it is useful to help us consider what we
might need to do.
In Procurement and Supply Chain we often have to deal with
today’s problems, but we do have to try and be ready for future ones. At the moment the world economy is certainly Volatile. There is a case that it always is, but I
think the past 20 years have been much more volatile than expected in the “End
of History” 1990s. Currently there are
many active drivers of political and economic volatility, including both wars
and trade wars and the effects of climate change. Naturally this leads to Uncertainty as it is
difficult to know what will happen next – the changing USA tariff situation for
example.
The Complexity is something we need to think about. The obvious impact is likely to be higher fuel
prices in the near term, which will lead to higher inflation and therefore
reduce the chance for a drop in interest rates.
This may lead to an increased risk of supplier failure. But this may have some positive impacts, (the
Ambiguous element) if the increased risk leads people to continue looking at Resilient
rather than Lean supply chains and that leads to more opportunities for
local/national/regional businesses.
The Ambiguity is apparent on a global scale – rising oil
prices will help Russia to fund their war in Ukraine, but Iran was a key
weapons supplier and probably will not be so much in the future. But China needs oil, and may therefore step
in. Will higher fuel prices support the
transition to renewable sources of energy?
Short term, Procurement needs to move quickly to determine
where there are vulnerabilities – and (let’s be clear) opportunities.
We all think/hope Business As Usual will be around the
corner. But we have been assuming that for
20 years since the Global Financial Crisis.
Time to get planning.
(and yes I have filled up with fuel today)
Well, we are all back at work and remembering what we used to do in 2025.
I hope.
In my case it is delivering training. And the first open course is imminent - Introduction to Public Procurement for PASS Procurement at BIP Solutions.
So, if you want to know about public procurement as either a buyer or supplier, or want a reminder, or just to usefully spend those budget pennies left down the back of the sofa before end of March....
The course is online 27th January 2026 - and full details are here.
There are more courses on the programme (not all delivered by me) if that date does not work for you. More details as we get nearer each one.
I think this is a very interesting submission from the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition to the Covid-19 enquiry.
My comments were;
Chris, great stuff. As my delegates will know, the late publication of PPE contract notices is a major gripe of mine (even allowing, as you do, for the difficult circumstances). That this was a deliberate attempt by government to escape scrutiny is (I think) an inescapable conclusion, leading to a huge loss of trust in public procurement and government. Even if no wrong doing were to be discovered, this is a terrible damage for the country. It was a deliberate choice by Ministers, who should be ashamed of themselves.
The facts that PPE was expensive, and fraudsters took advantage with sub-par products, are probably unavoidable. The damage to public trust was easily avoidable. It immediately leads people to think "there is no smoke without fire" and to suspect deliberate fraud and corruption at the highest level. In short, the exact opposite of what might have been intended.
There is good news and bad news about the course I run for GovPD - Winning more contracts, understanding and implementing the Procurement Act 2023.
The good news is that we are running it online again on 5th August 2025.
The bad news is that that session is already sold out.
The better news is that we have more dates scheduled - 1st October 2025 and 3rd December 2025.
But if you are interested, might be an idea to get booking. The course is mostly focused on suppliers, but is relevant to buyers too (and I make sure to tweak the content according to the delegates).
I had the pleasure of recording an hour long webinar making the case for Procurement (especially in the construction and engineering industries) with Built Intelligence.
This should be made available free of charge later in the year. I'll let you know when.
Basically this was me just raising (again) the need for a strategic Procurement plan. With the current global economic turbulence it becomes even more important to try and get ahead of the game rather than just reacting with transactional purchasing.
The acronym VUCA - Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous - certainly seems appropriate for our times. A strong Procurement strategy may not avoid all problems, but it should certainly help businesses to be better prepared for whatever happens.
Well its summer (still), and naturally everyone's minds turn to planning procurement training for the rest of the year.
No?
Just me then.
But a reminder that as well as working through a list of partner organisations, we also offer bespoke and off the shelf training programmes directly. These can be either face to face or online.
We offer courses covering a wide range of commercial skills, especially those related to procurement and supply chain management. The courses are suitable for both public and private sectors, and often for both buyers and sellers.
Course topics can include;
- The Procurement Act 2023 (which is topical)
- Procurement & Supply Chain Management
- Supplier Management
- Contract Management (my lawyer friends point out I am not a lawyer, and I point out that is why I run this course - the focus is on getting what we want, not detailed legal issues)
- Commercial Negotiation
- Tender evaluation processes
- Commercial awareness
AND a range of other things in related areas.
If you are interested, drop me a note or give me a call.
It is being organised by the Supply Chain Sustainability School, delivered by Action Sustainability.
I am doing a brief into the PA2023, before we have 3 expert presentations. Then there will be questions to the panel.
Even better (for you) it is free to attend.
Full sign up details are here.
I'm pleased to say that we already have a considerable audience signed up. Hope to see there.
Well, the transatlantic tariffs situation is still not clear. At the time of writing it seems that there will be a 50% tariff imposed on EU goods by the USA from 1 July. But this deadline has already been postponed once, and maybe again. And the size of the tariff may change. And then again, the courts have decided that the current tariffs should are not permissible in law and if the US government wishes to apply then it has to be done by Congress, and not by the Executive claiming (rather ridiculously*) an economic emergency.
I do not pretend to know what is going to happen, but as Procurement and Supply Chain professionals we should take this chance to shine within our own organisations. This period of high volatility will create both challenges and opportunities.
We need to be constantly reviewing the situation and developing (then implementing) appropriate plans.
Obviously we have to consider what it will mean if there are tariffs or reciprocal tariffs in our supply chains. We need to check what these are (or might be) and then consider our supplier's approach is going to be. Some will take this as an opportunity to raise prices to the full extent of tariff rate (even if there is a draw back arrangement, or if tariffs only apply to half of the product...). Others (dare I say more sensible) will see this as an opportunity to have more dialogue with their customers ("we don't know any more than you do, but we have to work together...").
But don't forget the opportunities that might arise from displacement effects - Chinese and EU goods unable to win market space in the USA because of high tariffs will look to find other customers. This might lead to price reductions as they seek to gain space in currently well served markets.
Whether we want to take advantage of that (risking existing relationships for a possibly temporary advantage) is of course the sort of thing we ought to be discussing internally and developing appropriate strategies.
Good luck
* The Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9 and Covid-19 in 2020 were obvious economic emergencies. The USA in 2025 was the fastest growing major economy, had actually caught up the growth trend line from before Covid, had 4% unemployment (technically full employment) and 2.5% inflation (just 0.5% above target) - Clearly not an emergency, though of course governments are free to adopt whatever policies they wish following due process.
Well, at least with a tariff things are merely (a lot) more expensive. It may lead to some suppliers dropping out of the market, and some products and services no longer being available.... but in theory they just add cost, inconvenience and drive inflation.
A bigger concern, which I think has been there but just not really a major focus of attention, is that China is not only a key manufacturer but a key source of raw materials. Which they have tight control on. Through the belt and road initiative they also exert control on some alternative sources of supply.
A particular choke point may be on rare earth metals (physicists joke that they are not rare, not earth and not even metals... but ignore us).
Controlling access to these essential elements used in advanced materials has long been a key Chinese economic strategy - and now they may just turn off the supply to the USA. And the EU.
Not being able to get things at any price is a bigger problem than higher prices.
A couple of articles here and here.
Good luck out there.
WELL, we are still in uncertain times. Tariffs are being introduced, reduced, raised, paused, exempted on what feels like a daily basis.
So, from a Procurement & Supply Chain point of view let's take the positives - our role in the organisation is (currently) critical to success - maybe even to survival. So, for once in our lives we are on the main stage (or at the very least, we should be - it may not be happening for you).
And because of the complex nature of some of these tariffs (see below) it is vitally important that we understand the origins and structure of our supply chains. So, we should be supported in those investigations rather than being told just to get a shipment for Tuesday...
Being less flippant and exaggerated, it is a good reminder of the Covid-19 lesson that unless we really understand our supply chains we are not aware of the risks and opportunities within it.
Good hunting.
The world has changed. It is not the same is it was on 31st March 2025.
I'm not in a position to tell you what to do in response, apart from to suggest that doing nothing is not an option.
The good news for Procurement and Supply Chain professionals is that our organisations now need us, and need us to be on top of our game.
Even if you management has not requested you to do so, I recommend you look hard at your existing supply chains and review your Risk Registers. Consider what might change and what your options are (if you have any).
The situation is likely to remain fluid for quite some time. Good luck!
Happy New Year.
The end of year break has gone past quickly and we are now quickly into the thick of courses and events. Still looking forward to the Procurement Act 2023 going live on 24th February 2025.
I shall be running Procurement Fundamentals online on 13th January 2025 for CIPS. A one day course, giving you (guess what?) the fundamentals of procurement (for both public and private sectors, services and manufacturing).
Hope you will join us.
full details here.
Well, I don't have any more open courses in 2024 (but am pretty full up with in-house courses) so here is some information about my first open skills course of 2025.
I shall be running Procurement Fundamentals online on 13th January 2025. A one day course, giving you (guess what?) the fundamentals of procurement (for both public and private sectors, services and manufacturing).
Hope you will join us.
full details here.
I shall be running CIPS Procurement Fundamentals course on Thursday 25th April 2024, starting at 8:45am for 9am UK time.
This assumes no knowledge of Procurement so is ideal for new starts or those considering a career in Procurement (you should - it is very interesting).
As always the course will be as interactive as I can make it.
Full details are here.
This interactive training course considers fundamental elements of the procurement process, together with basic tools and techniques used within procurement and supply. It provides a robust grounding in procurement basics and is designed for those in a junior procurement/supply chain role or those new to the discipline. Delivered using learning systems and techniques to develop individual skills
The Procurement Act 2023 has big implications for all public sector bodies, but for the defence industry there is a really big change as their standalone DSPCR 2011 is combined with other procurement processes.
We have two experts from MOD to talk through the changes, and (as it says) what it means for Defence Suppliers. I'm just your genial host.
I found the session really interesting, and Alex and Ben have been intimately involved in the legislation and now in the role out - so they know what they are talking about.
There is a slide pack to go along with the webinar, which will be less than an hour (currently in editing).
Hope you enjoy it. Joining instructions are here or here (which my system thinks is a dodgy site, but isnt. Honest)
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