Middle East Conflict - 3 weeks in (or more)

 There are definitely going to be people who say that the conflict in the Middle East has been going on for longer than 3 weeks.  

Some will say since 9/11.

Some will say since 1953 when the elected Iranian government was overthrown.

Some will say since 1919 and the "Peace to end Peace" and Sykes-Picot.

Some will say since Homeric times and the war against Troy... (Just listened to the Penelopiad by Margaret Atwood - very good).

And of course this by no means the only conflict in the world today - some "hot" wars and some less so.

So my question, is "why do we keep thinking that things will return to normal after this crisis"?

One thing we can see is that there is usually another, different crisis within a decade.  (and of course some crises are ones that just re-ignited).

So from a procurement point of view, we should not just assume that everything will be all right in the end.  Maybe it will.  But then there will be something else.

So how do we prepare and plan for this.

Lean supply chains and Just In Time have huge benefits, but are easily disrupted by global incidents.  Resilient or Agile supply chains are typically more expensive, but more robust.

I think the key thing is not to abandon your strategic approach (whichever it is) but to have in place contingency plans and options for when the next thing(s) come over the horizon.

And it will.

(but to be more optimistic, and we shall survive it, pretty much no matter what it is).

Middle East conflict and Procurement

 

Iran

It is disturbing to see places you know well in the news because of war – in this case Dubai (in particular the airport and Palm).

It helps to bring home that these things are happening to real people not in video game or AI generated content.

I hope this ends soon, and that there are no more casualties.

 

Not by any means the most important thing, but I would like to think about what it means for Procurement.  These days I frequently discuss with my delegates the acronym VUCA – Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous.  Unlike other tools this is just a descriptor rather than a diagnosis, but I think it is useful to help us consider what we might need to do.

In Procurement and Supply Chain we often have to deal with today’s problems, but we do have to try and be ready for future ones.  At the moment the world economy is certainly Volatile.  There is a case that it always is, but I think the past 20 years have been much more volatile than expected in the “End of History” 1990s.  Currently there are many active drivers of political and economic volatility, including both wars and trade wars and the effects of climate change.  Naturally this leads to Uncertainty as it is difficult to know what will happen next – the changing USA tariff situation for example.

The Complexity is something we need to think about.  The obvious impact is likely to be higher fuel prices in the near term, which will lead to higher inflation and therefore reduce the chance for a drop in interest rates.  This may lead to an increased risk of supplier failure.  But this may have some positive impacts, (the Ambiguous element) if the increased risk leads people to continue looking at Resilient rather than Lean supply chains and that leads to more opportunities for local/national/regional businesses.

The Ambiguity is apparent on a global scale – rising oil prices will help Russia to fund their war in Ukraine, but Iran was a key weapons supplier and probably will not be so much in the future.  But China needs oil, and may therefore step in.  Will higher fuel prices support the transition to renewable sources of energy? 

Short term, Procurement needs to move quickly to determine where there are vulnerabilities – and (let’s be clear) opportunities. 

We all think/hope Business As Usual will be around the corner.  But we have been assuming that for 20 years since the Global Financial Crisis. 

Time to get planning.  (and yes I have filled up with fuel today)

Win more Contracts - Public Procurement 2026 - 4th Feb 2026

 First open course of the year on Wednesday.  That one is full but we shall be running it again on April 26th 2026.

Full details are here.

The demise of the British Chemical Industry?

 I do hope not, but it is worrying.

Special report from Ed Conway of Sky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ3hT8tqZgo

Public Procurement Training in 2026

 Well, we are all back at work and remembering what we used to do in 2025.

I hope.

In my case it is delivering training. And the first open course is imminent - Introduction to Public Procurement for PASS Procurement at BIP Solutions.

So, if you want to know about public procurement as either a buyer or supplier, or want a reminder, or just to usefully spend those budget pennies left down the back of the sofa before end of March....

The course is online 27th January 2026 - and full details are here.

There are more courses on the programme (not all delivered by me) if that date does not work for you.  More details as we get nearer each one.

Those new Public Procurement Thresholds

 Here are those new Threshold values I mentioned earlier.  They apply from 1 January 2026  and will not change for 2 years.

The values are lower in both GBP and EUR, despite global inflation being in the range of 3% to 5% (obviously significantly different in any individual country).  I have to say that I am not sure what is happening here...

The Thresholds are denominated in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) which are based on a basket of currencies including Sterling and EUR (and USD, Yen and Yuan).  So they should not change a lot.  And I cannot see whether the underlying values in SDR have changed, nor why they have not been adapted to take account of inflation.

Anyway, the new (and old) values for the UK are below.

Win more contracts - understanding the Procurement Act 2023 - 4th December 2025

 Last open course for 2025 (for me) is online on Wednesday 4th December 2025.

Full details are here.

These courses have been very popular, and so we shall run them again in 2026, but not until February at the earliest.  And there will probably be a run of other courses as well, but not until the Spring.

So if you are interested, hope to see you online.