The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has been going on longer than expected. (well, longer than I expected - but I didn't expect the situation to arise, so what do I know?)
The New Normal which looks at the petrochemicals industries is warning that things COULD get a lot, lot worse before they get better.
We are just at the point where buffer stocks are running down. But even it everything opened up tomorrow it may till take 6 months or more to get back to normal.
That means at least 6 months of higher prices for fuel and chemicals (and hence everything), shortages and disruptions.
Good procurement professionals have been looking at their options a matter of course, but just at the moment the shift from Lean supply chains to Resilient supply chains seems essential. IF you can, of course.
Which is why we get a package for our trip to Malta, so that if flights were cancelled because of a lack of aviation fuel our holiday company was responsible for our accommodation (we saw what happened when the volcano in Iceland stopped flights over Europe and we had to stay in Egypt for an extra week - those who booked independently had to fend for themselves). Yes there is insurance, but who wants to have to go through that process when they are on holiday?
And there is much greater interest in alternatives to fossil fuels - but that transition will take time and money. This shock might just be the trigger though.
Meanwhile, we are seeing decreases in students from the Gulf coming to the UK for procurement training courses... just to show that the immediate and obvious impacts are not the only ones.
So, one last Malta photo (obvs we got there and back with no problems). (yes they have Red phone boxes, and post boxes).
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