Tariffs again...

 Well, the transatlantic tariffs situation is still not clear.  At the time of writing it seems that there will be a 50% tariff imposed on EU goods by the USA from 1 July.  But this deadline has already been postponed once, and maybe again.  And the size of the tariff may change.  And then again, the courts have decided that the current tariffs should are not permissible in law and if the US government wishes to apply then it has to be done by Congress, and not by the Executive claiming (rather ridiculously*) an economic emergency.

I do not pretend to know what is going to happen, but as Procurement and Supply Chain professionals we should take this chance to shine within our own organisations.  This period of high volatility will create both challenges and opportunities.

We need to be constantly reviewing the situation and developing (then implementing) appropriate plans.

Obviously we have to consider what it will mean if there are tariffs or reciprocal tariffs in our supply chains.  We need to check what these are (or might be) and then consider our supplier's approach is going to be.  Some will take this as an opportunity to raise prices to the full extent of tariff rate (even if there is a draw back arrangement, or if tariffs only apply to half of the product...).  Others (dare I say more sensible) will see this as an opportunity to have more dialogue with their customers ("we don't know any more than you do, but we have to work together...").

But don't forget the opportunities that might arise from displacement effects - Chinese and EU goods unable to win market space in the USA because of high tariffs will look to find other customers.  This might lead to price reductions as they seek to gain space in currently well served markets.

Whether we want to take advantage of that (risking existing relationships for a possibly temporary advantage) is of course the sort of thing we ought to be discussing internally and developing appropriate strategies.

Good luck

* The Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9 and Covid-19 in 2020 were obvious economic emergencies.  The USA in 2025 was the fastest growing major economy, had actually caught up the growth trend line from before Covid, had 4% unemployment (technically full employment) and 2.5% inflation (just 0.5% above target) - Clearly not an emergency, though of course governments are free to adopt whatever policies they wish following due process.

Always look on the bright side of tariffs - part 2

 Well, at least with a tariff things are merely (a lot) more expensive.  It may lead to some suppliers dropping out of the market, and some products and services no longer being available....  but in theory they just add cost, inconvenience and drive inflation.

A bigger concern, which I think has been there but just not really a major focus of attention, is that China is not only a key manufacturer but a key source of raw materials.  Which they have tight control on.  Through the belt and road initiative they also exert control on some alternative sources of supply.

A particular choke point may be on rare earth metals (physicists joke that they are not rare, not earth and not even metals... but ignore us).

Controlling access to these essential elements used in advanced materials has long been a key Chinese economic strategy - and now they may just turn off the supply to the USA.  And the EU.

Not being able to get things at any price is a bigger problem than higher prices.

A couple of articles here and here.

Good luck out there.

Always look on the bright side of tariffs - part one

 WELL, we are still in uncertain times.  Tariffs are being introduced, reduced, raised, paused, exempted on what feels like a daily basis.

So, from a Procurement & Supply Chain point of view let's take the positives - our role in the organisation is (currently) critical to success  - maybe even to survival.  So, for once in our lives we are on the main stage (or at the very least, we should be - it may not be happening for you).

And because of the complex nature of some of these tariffs (see below) it is vitally important that we understand the origins and structure of our supply chains.  So, we should be supported in those investigations rather than being told just to get a shipment for Tuesday...

Being less flippant and exaggerated, it is a good reminder of the Covid-19 lesson that unless we really understand our supply chains we are not aware of the risks and opportunities within it.

Good hunting.