COVID-19 and the complexity of supply chains.

It is a rather unpopular point of view these days, but the world is rather complex.  Things seem very simple on the surface, but rather like a swimming swan, there is a lot going on under the water line.

Our supply chains - basically - just work.  It no longer seems miraculous to us that we have strawberries in January, and can order a coffee spoon from around the world for 90p  (I did.  It came from China via Guadalcanal).

The current lockdown has made us all more aware - many of us can barely remember shortages, let alone for multiple products at the same time (toilet paper, pasta, flour....)  Our supermarket supply chains are so optimised that a relatively small increase in demand (from both panic buying, and an increased demand now that more of us are eating 3 meals per day at home instead of only 2 or even 1) has meant empty shelves.  In classic Inventory Bullwhip fashion, this has lead to people increasing order quantities (as we supply chain folk like to call panic buying) and increased stockholding (aka hording) leading to even more shortages.

The supply chain IS reacting.  But having optimised for efficiency it is difficult to reformulate for effectiveness.  So we have people like the wholesale suppliers (no longer able to supply restaurants) being willing to supply the public - but only providing flour in 12kg sacks.  It will get there.  And may be people may be just a little bit more aware of what a miracle it is.

But a word of warning - you can hardly buy a webcam for love nor money.  And they mostly come from China, and are not likely to be the number one priority as things normalise there.  So, some shortages will continue for quite some time.  Sorry if you intended starting a podcast.