Covid-19 and the economy - it could be worse

Ok, I admit I might just be trying to keep my own spirits up, but the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility) scenario review that says that the UK economy will shrink by 35% in Q2 (compared to Q2 last year) could be worse.

Think about it - it means that nearly two thirds of the economy is still functioning.  Now, in economic terms a 2% change is seen as significant and 10% is huge, but let's try and be positive.  The impact is of course very different in different industry sectors.  There seems to be a 90% reduction in Education (which I suppose we should expect given schools and universities are closed).  Similarly for hotels.
But manufacturing is only down 55% (only!) and utilities by 20%.  There is still some activity going on during lockdown.

So, what will it mean for procurement when lockdown ends?  Well, obviously there will still be considerable disruption to supply chains - there will be shortages, and delays - but also temporary gluts.  There will be an opportunity for some suppliers to temporarily charge premium prices until the market normalises.  There will also be opportunities for some canny buyers to get some bargain prices - but we shall have to be careful that we do not force too many suppliers out of business by insisting on prices that allow them only to liquidate stock and not to rebuild.

Being selfish, I hope that the crisis does lead to people having greater awareness and consideration of their supply chains.  Beyond that, I just want to try and keep my spirits up.  Hope you can too.